Hurricane Henri Moves In - Concern About Power Outages, Flooding

Saturday, August 21 2021 by Richard Hunt with contribution from AccuWeather

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Hurricane landfall prediction from AccuWeather
AccuWeather
Current hurricane landfall prediction from AccuWeather

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned that widespread and long-lasting power outages are significant risk for residents in parts of the Northeast as Henri impacts the area – most especially Connecticut, Long Island, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts.  "Over 3 million power outages may be reported at the peak of the storm and outages may be long lasting, perhaps a week or more for full restoration.  This concern is amplified because of the fact that the ground is already saturated from a wet summer across the Northeast, several inches of additional rainfall from Henri and strong winds that will be coming from the southeast, which is an uncommon wind direction for strong winds in the Northeast; trees can more easily succumb to winds from this direction.  Given the large number of power lines above ground in these areas, falling trees are a major component to power outage risk.  People in these areas should prepare to be without power for several days with the needed supplies and if they have a generator, they should make sure they are installing and operating it safely and in a well-ventilated location."

AccuWeather Global Weather Center - August 21, 2021 - Henri was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane on Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph as of  Saturday afternoon.

Henri may continue to slowly strengthen through Saturday night as it moves over the warm, Gulf Stream waters.  By Sunday, Henri will encounter cooler water before making landfall and may begin to lose some intensity.

Henri is currently tracking toward the north-northeast at 17 mph and is expected to turn more toward the north and north-northwest early Sunday before making landfall over Long Island, NY or the south coast of Rhode Island.

If Henri makes landfall over Long Island it will likely occur during the late morning or early afternoon on Sunday, which may be within one-to-two hours of high tide all the way up into Connecticut. If Henri makes landfall over Rhode Island it will occur later afternoon and closer to low tide.

Henri is expected to be a category 1 hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph) or a strong tropical storm when it makes landfall on Sunday.

The heaviest rainfall and greatest chance for flooding is expected north and west of where the center makes landfall. 

The strong winds and greatest storm surge is expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Henri is expected to steadily lose wind intensity later Sunday as the center moves farther inland. However, despite the expected weakening, the wind field will likely be expanding outward from the center during that time while heavy rain bands may be still capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of one inch per hour. 

The combination of recent rainfall, fully leaved trees and an aging power grid may be a recipe for widespread power outages. Residents should begin to make preparations for an extended period without power. 

A large portion of , southwestern, central and northeast Connecticut just recently had over 4 inches of rainfall from Fred, so it may take less rainfall than usual to cause significant flooding in portions of Connecticut. The saturated ground may also make it easier for trees to become uprooted.

Low lying areas along the coast of Long Island, southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts may experience significant coastal flooding and beach erosion due to a surge of water. Some roads may become impassable. Residents are encouraged to heed any evacuation orders from local officials. 

Henri is expected to lose tropical characteristics by Monday night with the main impacts being locally heavy rainfall and some gusty winds for parts of central and northern New England.

projected eye path
[Photo Credit: AccuWeather] 
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